With June’s midpoint upon us, a few bullpens are in transition. According to Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, Edwin Díaz will be activated on Thursday (June 13) and assume closer duties. After two scoreless rehab outings, can he regain past form with the slider? This will be the key component for his rest-of-the-season results.
After a dominant May, Andrés Muñoz revealed he’s been dealing with back discomfort since the season’s second game. He underwent an injection on Tuesday and received a clean MRI, but he may require workload management moving forward, which will cap his save total. Fantasy managers must plan accordingly.
Regarding injections, Jordan Romano received a second one in his right elbow and resumed throwing, but no timeline has been revealed for his return. Those with Yimi García should hold tight after Romano’s activated since this may also become a shared save situation.
Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
American League High-Leverage Pathways
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3U0Dm/16/
AL Notes of Interest
- Boston Red Sox: Holding one of the trade chips in the reliever market, the Red Sox have made clear its intentions with Kenley Jansen. The pending free agent has converted 10 of 11 save opportunities this season.
- Chicago White Sox: This leverage ladder has had a tough stretch, with its last save coming from Jonathan Cannon during a three-inning appearance. Michael Kopech last secured one on May 15 and has struggled in recent outings. Because of the team concept, it may be best to mine saves from ancillary sources on winning teams rather than in this bullpen.
- Detroit Tigers: After a strong start, Jason Foley has received a sparse number of save chances, and last recorded one on June 4. The Tigers have converted three saves over their previous 17 contests, two by Foley and one by Tyler Holton.
- Kansas City Royals: Will this team be a contender or a pretender? How it handles the trade deadline may determine this question. During the spring, it was reported that the Royals were searching for a veteran closer. Based on recent results, this pursuit may heat up near the All-Star game.
- Los Angeles Angels: With the entire high-leverage triumvirate (Carlos Estévez, Luis García, Matt Moore) on expiring contracts, the Angels can continue its rebuild on the fly ahead of the trade deadline. The question remains: Can Ben Joyce find footing as an effective leverage option?
- Tampa Bay Rays: Can the rehabbing starting pitchers provide Pete Fairbanks more save chances? Shane Baz could be activated soon, and Jeffrey Springs will begin his rehab assignment. Will it be too little too late?
National League High-Leverage Pathways
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bk2vG/16/
NL Notes of Interest
- Atlanta Braves: A key component of this leverage ladder will be activated shortly. A.J. Minter was throwing throughout his injured list stint and may only require one rehab outing before his return.
- Colorado Rockies: With Justin Lawrence on the injured list, manager Bud Black has shifted into a shared save situation with Jalen Beeks and Tyler Kinley. Since May 26, Kinley has recorded four saves, and Beeks has secured two. It’s not perfect, but it’s working for the two relievers.
- Miami Marlins: Riding the wave of a 13-game scoreless streak, Tanner Scott has enhanced his trade market. Since May 1, he’s collected four wins and four saves with 18 strikeouts against six walks over 15 scoreless innings.
- Milwaukee Brewers: While fantasy managers stash Devin Williams for his return in late July, Trevor Megill has made the most of his opportunity atop the leverage ladder. He’s converted 11 of 12 save chances since April 25 with 20 strikeouts versus two walks and a 1.05 WHIP through 14.1 innings.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Focused on winning and not roles, the Phillies shared save duo continues to thrive. José Alvarado has recorded seven saves since the start of May, and Jeff Hoffman has secured three saves, with neither complaining about being deployed in the eighth inning based on match-ups.
Relievers on the Rise
Yimi García (TOR): Through five appearances in June, he’s recorded two wins and three saves with 11 strikeouts against zero walks (55 K-BB percentage) and a 0.53 WHIP over 5.1 innings. It’s a small sample, but he’s been his team’s best reliever all season and could retain a save share even when Romano’s activated. Stay tuned.
Alex Vesia (LAD): It’s a crowded leverage ladder, but he hasn’t been scored upon in 11 of his past 12 games, allowing two hits and three walks while recording 22 strikeouts. His 0.37 WHIP since May 6 leads all qualified relievers, and his 41.3 K-BB percentage ranks second. He’s an ancillary save option but can be used as a ratio eraser in leagues with daily moves.
Sam Hentges (CLE): Enhancing an already strong leverage ladder, the southpaw could become a strong play for those in leagues with holds or SOLDS. He owns a modest six-game scoreless streak with two holds but has registered multiple strikeouts in his past three outings — nine strikeouts against zero walks through his last 6.2 innings while posting a minuscule 0.30 WHIP.
Ryne Stanek (SEA): Given the news regarding his teammate’s back, Stanek emerges as a relevant reliever for shared saves in mixed-league formats. Since May 28, he owns a 2-1 record while converting three of four save chances with a 1.17 WHIP and nine strikeouts against four walks, though two were intentional.
Closer Concerns
Héctor Neris (CHC): As of June 12, three relievers had a WHIP above 1.50 and at least nine saves, including Neris. In 26 appearances, he’s had only three clean outings, resulting in his 1.58 WHIP through 24.2 innings. His ERA minus SIERA of -0.80 suggests there may be a bit more negative regression for the Cubs closer as well. He’s allowing more contact in the strike zone with a reduced whiff percentage while producing fewer swings — less than optimal. In terms of quality of contact, he’s also struggling:
- 3.0 pop-up percentage plus 9.1 percent weak contact = 12.1 percent poor contact-induced
- 6.1 solid percentage plus 12.1 barrel rate = 18.2 good contact allowed
When viewing his pitch splits, he’s relying on his split-finger fastball and struggling with his four-seam fastball, causing the inflated ratios:
Time will tell if this can be improved, but his 16.5 walk percentage makes save chances a walk on the wild side each time.
Camilo Doval (SFG): Speaking of walks, Doval has produced a career-worst 15.6 percent walk rate this season. He’s tweaked his pitch mix, throwing fewer sinkers:
Although he’s increased his ground-ball percentage, his WHIP sits at 1.59 through 26.1 innings. Ramping up his slider use has made the pitch a bit less effective, illustrated in his splits-by-pitch comparison with last year:
Time will tell if this represents a blip in his development or a trend of increased traffic during save situations.
Save Stashes
Ancillary Save Options
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/saL9T/1/
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ltejS/1/
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios
- Matt Strahm (PHI)
- Cade Smith (CLE)
- Luke Weaver (NYY)
- José Leclerc (TEX)
High Leverage Ladders
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through June 11): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Yimi García: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports)
