The NBA All-Star break couldn’t have arrived at a better time for the Miami Heat (25-28).
Miami pauses its season with a season-long four-game losing streak and currently sits ninth in the Eastern Conference, four games ahead of the Chicago Bulls (22-33) for the final Play-In Spot. While the Heat will enjoy seeing first-time All-Star Tyler Herro (Sunday’s game, Saturday’s 3-point contest) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Friday’s Rising Stars Challenge) partake in this weekend’s festivities, the break also will give the team a chance to recharge amid what has been a challenging season.
As Miami continues finding its way and assessing where it stands, let’s examine four observations about the Heat with the All-Star break here.
Heat need consistent scoring beyond their two stars
It’s certainly been great to see Tyler Herro grow more into his own this season. He’s coming off his second 40-point game of the season after posting one such outing in his 286 career outings entering this campaign. Part of the issue? Both performances have come in losses, which illustrates Miami’s thin margin for error when there isn’t a surplus of points to rely on. Herro’s numbers on the season are career highs across the board (23.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and a 60.6 percent true shooting mark), but the Heat’s offense is too desperate when their lone All-Star this season isn’t lighting up the scoreboard.
Of course, the team trusts captain Bam Abebayo to handle the frontcourt scoring load, but his gifts as a passer are best balanced by his own knack for providing points. He’s sixth among all bigs in potential assists per game this season (7.5). Adebayo’s ranking climbs to a fourth-place tie (7.8) with All-Star center Alperen Şengün since Jan. 1, when he fell a rebound shy of his second triple-double on the season. His dimes can aid Heat players in a variety of ways, whether tossing lobs to Kel’el Ware, finding teammates for catch-and-shoot 3s or running two-man action with cunning cutters near the rim.
Since the new year, Herro is shooting only 37.4 percent off Adebayo’s assist opportunities (33.9 percent on 3s), so other Heat players learning to efficiently thrive off the latter’s usage would breathe life into the team’s offense.
Lineup continuity will go a long way
With Butler off the roster, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is still gauging his most-trusted units with Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson adjusting to a new team. Only two of Spoelstra’s 10 most-used lineups during Miami’s four-game skid have mustered a positive net rating.
No matter what units Coach Spo settles on, it will be vital for Herro to be on the court because he’s Miami’s most explosive scoring option. Adebayo and Ware as a two-big front has yielded resounding results as the latter continues adjusting to the NBA game. Since a Jan. 19 win over Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, during which Adebayo and Ware logged their first extensive in-game minutes together, the Heat are 10th among all teams in points allowed in the paint after ranking 16th in the 40 games prior.
The true test for Miami’s ideal lineups will be gauging the best players to fit around those three.
Wiggins, for example, can be one of the league’s most effective 3-and-D wings while locking down an opposing team’s best defender. Unfortunately, he’s shooting only 23 percent from deep through two games with Miami, but that figure will certainly climb as the team learns to find him cleaner looks (42.3 percent on wide-open 3s this season). Mitchell is an effective point-of-attack defender who can also take the ball out of Herro’s hands on offense. Through three outings with Miami, he leads the team with 53 passes per game, but improved chemistry with setting up Herro and Adebayo (40.7 percent combined off Mitchell’s passing) will go a long way toward making life easier for Miami’s offense.
Players like Jaquez, Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jović, Haywood Highsmith and Alec Burks can also contribute meaningful minutes, but there are only so many to go around. Jaquez has had an up-and-down season but is one of Miami’s most active attackers of the basket when he’s healthy and in rhythm. Robinson undoubtedly remains a value floor-spacer, but he’s attempted 10 shots only once since Jan. 27 and is shooting only 37.8 percent from the field in his seven games since then.
Jović, who recently enjoyed arguably the finest stretch of his young career, shot only 33.3 percent overall and made just 23.1 percent of his 3s in Miami’s four games before the All-Star break. Burks is valuable whenever he does play, but he alone won’t solve Miami’s issues. All the same, he does improve the team’s net rating by plus-8.2 points in his 502 minutes this season. More importantly, he’s a supportive teammate whenever other Heat players get opportunities ahead of him.
Defensive upside remains high
Spoelstra is always going to demand all he can from his players, even when his team ranks 10th in defense. For a few weeks, he’s expressed a desire to rank higher in that category, especially to broaden margin for error in case of scoring droughts.
The Heat are among four teams this season with a record of at least 10-0 when allowing fewer than 100 points. The others? The Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. Of course, Miami’s place in the standings doesn’t resemble those other squads, but it does show the team’s upside when it’s locked in defensively.
When Adebayo and Ware have shared the floor, the Heat are allowing only 99.8 points per 100 possessions and only 41.7 percent shooting. No different from finding the right teammates for an effective offense, Spoelstra is always assessing which players can raise his defense’s floor to ensure a balanced attack. Wings like Highsmith can be defensive gems on the perimeter, but he’s shooting only 27 percent from deep since Jan. 11, which makes it hard to play him extended minutes despite starting the season as a regular in the rotation.
If Mitchell can knock down open 3s, his potential as a defensive contributor can help take pressure off Herro on the perimeter. Likewise for Wiggins, who has given trouble to wing scorers throughout his career. Moreover, Adebayo playing alongside Ware will allow Adebayo to defend more possessions on the perimeter, whether it’s blitzing pick-and-rolls, switching, guarding a team’s best scorer or just providing extra attention to stifle possessions. On the season, only the Thunder, Nets and Grizzlies allow fewer points per possession than the Heat (0.83).
A balance of effective shooting and defensive consistency could help rescue Miami from dancing around .500 for the rest of the season, especially considering the team’s admittedly frustrating pattern of blowing leads, but Spoelstra is confident there is time to right the ship.
“We’re going to correct that,” Spoelstra told the media after Thursday’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks. “We’re going to get better. We have enough experience with it now. Our guys are fully aware of it. Everybody wants to be better in these situations, when we’re up. We’ll take a few days off. I’ll get to work. The staff will get to work. I promise we’re going to correct this.”
Lottery luck will be key
By trading Butler, the Heat acquired a top-10 protected 2025 first-rounder from the Golden State Warriors, who will do everything they can to make the playoffs in an effort to maximize their remaining window with Stephen Curry. That protection means the selection will only stay with Golden State if it lands in the top 10.
Otherwise, the pick goes to Miami, which could select a talented contributor in a very talented draft class. Entering the break, that Warriors pick would fall to No. 14, which would give Miami a chance to draft lottery talent for the second consecutive year, something the team hasn’t done since selecting Dwyane Wade (fifth overall in 2003) and Caron Butler (10th in 2002). Ware’s production and upside this season further illustrate the franchise’s knack for developing and maximizing talent of different ilks, but there could still be good news even if Miami’s season continues trending downward.
The Heat’s own 2025 first-round pick is top-14 protected to the Thunder, meaning Miami will retain the pick if it misses the playoffs. Expecting the Heat to tank a game, let alone any stretch of a season, is futile, but missing the playoffs would grant the team another resource for mapping its future.
Two lottery selections in a loaded draft is a great consolation prize for any team, especially one that has experienced the roller coaster the Heat have been on this season. Entering the break, they would pick at No. 11 with their own first-rounder. Trading Jimmy Butler also allotted the team long-term financial flexibility to eye a potential max-level salary slot next summer, should any potential free agent eye South Florida as a destination in 2026.
How the rest of this season plays out remains to be seen, but the Heat do control elements of their future as it takes shape. They just need a timely breather before working on it some more.
(Photo: Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)
