The 2025 NHL trade deadline has some fascinating, unique dynamics at play.
Firstly, there’s a lack of motivated sellers. In the Eastern Conference, the Buffalo Sabres are the only team more than seven points back of a playoff spot, which means fewer clubs are waving the white flag as sellers. There are more teams out of the playoff race in the West, but many of those clubs lack the high-end pieces contending teams would be attracted to.
Secondly, many teams are rushing to get their business done before the two-week 4 Nations break. Buyers see the value of giving players they acquire a chance to acclimate to their new cities and settle in before important stretch runs.
Third, the upcoming NHL Draft class is weaker than usual. That’s likely played a factor in teams’ willingness to give up 2025 first-round picks for the top names on the market.
With just over a month left before the March 7 deadline, we picked five contenders and assigned each of them a perfect fit. We didn’t duplicate any “perfect fits,” since only one team can ultimately trade for a player.
Big names like Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Miller, Marcus Pettersson, Joel Farabee/Morgan Frost and Mikael Granlund have already been dealt. Because the remaining trade board is thin, we had to shift our focus and target some middle-of-the-lineup and depth fits for many of these teams rather than go big-game hunting.
Without further ado, let’s dive into this season’s perfect fits.
New Jersey Devils
The perfect fit: Jake Evans
The trade: Evans for a 2025 second-round pick, 2026 third-round pick
The Devils have made splashy moves over the last two years to add Timo Meier, Brett Pesce and Jacob Markstrom to an exciting young core. On paper, they already look like a handful, blending high-end forwards (Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Meier) with one of the league’s most balanced blue lines — and, finally, stability in net.
But as Dom Luszczyszyn laid out last week, they’re still not getting enough offense at five-on-five. And as Pierre LeBrun has reported, they could really use a center to strengthen their bottom six.
They could address both needs with Evans, who is in the midst of a breakout season in Montreal. Evans is already up to 26 points in 52 games, just three points off his career high with 30 games left to play. Perhaps more important, for New Jersey’s sake: None of his 11 goals have come on the power play, with eight at even strength and three short-handed. He also comes in at a manageable $1.7 million ticket, which is key for a Devils team that’s tight to the cap.
Evans has been a great story for Montreal, and there’s probably a strong temptation for the Canadiens to extend the 28-year-old. But general manager Kent Hughes will have to weigh that option against Evans’ high shooting percentage (over 21 percent, more than double his career average) and the risk of signing an overpaid bottom-six contract, compared to cashing in on that value at the deadline.
The price we have here is nearly identical to what Calgary paid in 2022 for Calle Järnkrok, a similarly balanced bottom-six center who had 26 points in 49 games for the Kraken before the 2022 deadline. The Devils can justify it, though, partly because they have extra second-round capital this year — and a team that looks capable of making a run in a wide-open Eastern Conference.
Jake Evans could beef up the Devils’ bottom-six scoring with his career-best scoring pace. (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
Colorado Avalanche
The perfect fit: Brock Nelson
The trade: Nelson for Casey Mittelstadt and a 2025 second-round pick (originally Carolina’s)
After the early blockbusters this year, Nelson might be the biggest remaining prize out there — and with the Islanders surging into the 4 Nations break, New York may be reticent to move him as a playoff-proven two-way center.
But unless the Islanders can create real separation in the Eastern Conference wild-card race, the reality around Nelson’s situation is hard to ignore. He’s a 33-year-old pending UFA who may walk for nothing this summer, and the Islanders are a team that could use some younger pieces.
Colorado, meanwhile, has two superstars in their prime — Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar — who can go head-to-head against anyone in the NHL, but can’t boast the depth to qualify as a true Stanley Cup favorite. The Avalanche made a bet last year on up-and-coming second-line center Casey Mittelstadt, acquiring him for Bowen Byram, but while Mittelstadt is still producing, the fit hasn’t been right in Colorado.
So we’re proposing a swap that helps the Avalanche upgrade their No. 2 center spot into a battle-tested winner like Nelson in the short run and allows the Islanders to get a “now” player back while getting younger and adding some team-controlled years.
Think of it in the mold of last season’s Jake Guentzel deal between the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins. In that deal, the Penguins got back a second-round pick and three mid-grade prospects but also forward Michael Bunting, who still had term on his deal. Mittelstadt is a more valuable asset than Bunting because of his younger age and ability to play a premium position, which is why we didn’t have Colorado sweetening the pot beyond the additional second-round pick in this proposal.
Colorado could certainly take a run at re-signing Nelson, but even if he leaves in free agency, it would still have freed up the cap space to take a mulligan on the Mittelstadt bet and seek out a new No. 2 center in the summer. New York gets back a younger player with term and nearly identical production, plus a draft pick.
We see it as a logical solution to both teams’ predicaments, giving Colorado a better chance at a deep run in 2025 and allowing the Islanders to get value for Nelson without having to wait three or four years to see that impact materialize at the NHL level.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The perfect fit: Trent Frederic
The trade: Frederic for a 2025 second-round pick (originally Toronto’s)
Perhaps no team has a better track record at finding their perfect deadline fit than the Lightning (except for the Tanner Jeannot blunder). In 2020, they brought in Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow to build an outstanding third line that helped win back-to-back Stanley Cups. In 2022, they swung for Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul, got back to the Final, and have kept both — with Hagel becoming one of their best players.
The Lightning aren’t quite the powerhouse they were back then, but they’re still a very good team with some of the best high-end talent in the league. Their issue is depth, particularly at forward. And that should lead them back to a similar approach to those 2020 and 2022 deadlines, trying to find their missing piece on the third line.
This year, we think that player is Frederic, a wrecking-ball forward whose offense has been down in 2024-25, but who had 40 points last season — and at least 17 goals in each of the last two seasons. Slot him next to Paul and Zemgus Girgensons and you’ve got a miserable line to play against, with both Paul and Frederic able to chip in playoff offense. That line would be a fantastic complement to Tampa’s elite top six.
It would be tough for the Bruins to send Frederic within the division, especially as they continue to stay in the Eastern Conference wild-card race. But if they’re not committed to extending Frederic, the smart move would be to get something for him now. We have it as a straight-up deal for a second-round pick, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see another pick thrown in if there’s a bidding war, considering the offense Frederic brought last season and the physical dimension in his game.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The perfect fit: Ryan O’Reilly
The trade: O’Reilly for Fraser Minten, Nick Robertson and a 2027 fourth-round pick
The Leafs’ need for a third-line center upgrade has been talked about all year.
Max Domi is having a very difficult season and can’t be trusted to hold that role down full-time. Toronto’s six top scorers (William Nylander, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann) have combined for 120 of the club’s 159 goals scored this season. The Leafs desperately need secondary scoring in the bottom six and that’s where a No. 3 center who can drive offense would help kill two birds with one stone.
Enter a familiar name: O’Reilly. He’s productive offensively (29 points in 48 games), still drives excellent defensive metrics, fits the gritty, hard-to-play-against playing style this management group covets and is a proven playoff performer. He was a strong fit for the Leafs two years ago when they finally won a playoff round.
O’Reilly opted to hit free agency instead of re-signing in Toronto, which is notable, but the circumstances are different now. Toronto’s front office and coaching staff are completely different, including head coach Craig Berube, with whom O’Reilly won a Stanley Cup in St. Louis. O’Reilly also doesn’t have any formal trade protection, so even though the Preds would like to do right by him, general manager Barry Trotz can technically move him anywhere if the price is right.
Two years ago, O’Reilly essentially cost the Leafs a first- and second-round pick as a rental. (Toronto also paid a third, but that pick was presumably for Noel Acciari, who also came in the deal.) You’d expect him to be more expensive now, given he has two years left after this season at a $4.5 million cap hit, but he’s less than a week from turning 34, so the age-related risk factor is real and should prevent the cost from climbing too high.
Fraser Minten would be the prized asset for the Predators in this proposal.
Minten is Toronto’s second-best prospect and could develop into an intelligent, defensive-minded third-line center. He’s 20 and close to being NHL-ready based on his solid AHL play and the cup of coffee he got earlier this season with the big club. Alternatively, the Leafs could build a package around their 2026 first-round pick, but we figured Nashville might prefer a young player who is close to contributing rather than a draft pick who’ll be 3-5 years away from helping.
We also included Nick Robertson as a secondary piece. Robertson has fallen out of favor in Toronto but could break out with a bigger opportunity elsewhere. He scored 14 goals and 27 points in 56 games with the Leafs last season, despite averaging just 11:23 per game. The 23-year-old left winger could develop into a 20-goal scorer. Finally, we added a fourth-round pick as a third piece to sweeten the pot.
It’s possible the Preds might want more than this, but at the very least, this seems like a reasonable starting point.
Brian Dumoulin’s performance on a terrible Ducks team has been better than his stats imply. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Winnipeg Jets
The perfect fit: Brian Dumoulin
The trade: Dumoulin for a 2025 third-round pick
The Jets’ biggest roster need is a second-line center behind Mark Scheifele. That’s nothing new — general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has traded for 2C rentals Sean Monahan, Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes in years past.
We searched for realistic, fair 2C trades that would make sense for both sides, but there weren’t any obvious fits. Nelson is the only top-six UFA center left on the market, but we already matched him with Colorado, plus can the Jets really afford to trade another first for a rental given all the draft capital they spent at last year’s deadline?
O’Reilly would be the “perfect” target for the Jets because he has term left beyond this season, but reports say Trotz would only move O’Reilly to a spot he was comfortable with, which could be a stumbling block, and we’ve already matched him with the Leafs in this exercise.
Winnipeg could also use an upgrade on the blue line. Logan Stanley, the club’s left-side third-pair defenseman, is the clear weak link.
The hulking 6-foot-7 defender is physical and can kill penalties, but his lack of puck skills and footspeed make him a liability at times. Stanley’s only helped the Jets control 46.7 percent of five-on-five shot attempts during his shifts, which is the worst mark among the team’s defensemen. And that’s despite him playing sheltered matchups.
This is where Dumoulin could be an attractive upgrade.
The 33-year-old is a savvy, experienced stay-at-home defenseman. Dumoulin’s analytical profile doesn’t look great on the surface this season, but context is massive here. He’s played the most minutes against “elite” competition of any Ducks defenseman this year according to PuckIQ and has averaged nearly 20 minutes per game. By the eye, Dumoulin has handled that exceptionally challenging workload better than the underlying numbers give him credit for. And if you go back as recently as last season, he drove quality two-way results in Seattle.
In Winnipeg, Dumoulin would be able to settle into a reduced third-pair role and play significantly easier matchups. He’d be far steadier and more reliable than Stanley on the bottom pair. Plus, he’s got championship pedigree from his time in Pittsburgh.
A third-round pick is in line with what the Canucks got from the Leafs for Luke Schenn two years ago. Schenn’s age, stylistic profile (big defensive defenseman) and the season he was having (quietly succeeding in Vancouver’s top four, but probably best suited to a third-pair role on a contender) line up pretty similarly with Dumoulin’s situation now. Maybe the Jets would have to add another mid- or late-round pick to sweeten the pot because the defense market has been expensive lately, but we feel we’re in the right ballpark for a depth defenseman.
The modest acquisition cost for Dumoulin would also keep the Jets’ assets ready to take a run at a 2C if the right player becomes available.
(Top photo of Brock Nelson and Ryan O’Reilly: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images and Sergei Belsky / Imagn Images)
