As the calendar turns to March, attention shifts to college basketball’s regular season and the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
For most of the season, Auburn and Duke battled for the top of the national championship odds at BetMGM. On the heels of winning the outright SEC regular-season title, the Tigers (+325) possess a slight edge over the field one week ahead of conference tournaments. But the Blue Devils (+375) shouldn’t be counted out with their dominant two-way play and three potential top-10 picks.
With the unpredictable nature of the NCAA Tournament, secondary contenders remain firmly involved. Houston (+750) is rolling once again this season on the way to another potential No. 1 seed. The loaded SEC also features Florida (+900), Alabama (+1100) and Tennessee (+1500) as serious title contenders. A fully healthy Iowa State (+1600) is still worth tracking. Hall of Fame coaches Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino have Michigan State and St. John’s (both +2500) playing high-level ball entering March.
There are plenty of teams and storylines to track before the Big Dance begins.
NCAA men’s basketball national championship winner odds
Dominant Auburn keeps its foot on the gas
Auburn continued its dream regular season with a road win at Kentucky over the weekend. Winning perhaps the toughest top-to-bottom conference in college hoops in the past decade, the Tigers are clearly the No. 1 team in the country to this point in the season.
Playing the toughest schedule in the country, according to KenPom, Auburn collected eight wins against top 15 opponents this season — with six of those wins coming against the top five.
Sporting the nation’s No. 1 offense and No. 10 defense, the balanced Tigers boast one of the oldest and most experienced rosters in Division I. Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome receives the most individual attention among Auburn’s deep roster, but the Tigers kept winning without its star in January when Broome missed time with a sprained ankle.
Detracting from Auburn’s title hopes is a lackluster tournament history under coach Bruce Pearl. The Tigers made a Final Four run under the National Coach of the Year frontrunner in 2019. That run is also the program’s only trip past the first weekend in five appearances under Pearl.
After winning the SEC Tournament last season but bowing out to No. 13 seed Yale in a first-round upset, Auburn has something to prove as the favorites entering March Madness.
Duke stays with Auburn
Staying right with the Tigers atop the national championship odds board is Duke — one of two teams to defeat Auburn this season. Armed with potential No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, as well as fellow potential top-10 picks Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach, Duke boasts the most raw talent of any roster in the country.
Being a freshmen-led team hasn’t produced consistent national title results, with Duke’s 2015 team led by Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow the last one-and-done heavy roster to cut down the nets. There’s also a lot to like about Duke’s overall talent equating to a deep tournament run in 2025.
Strong two-way play puts the Blue Devils at No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 4 in defensive rating on KenPom. Tenth in the nation in 3-point percentage and third in the country in 2-point defense, Duke possesses the offensive versatility to knock down perimeter jumpers with multiple shooters while still defending the rim at an elite level on the other end.
Unlike battle-tested Auburn, the Blue Devils haven’t faced a ranked team since mid-December. The ACC leaders are steamrolling competitors after a mid-February road loss to Clemson, winning by an average of 31.6 points per game during a six-game winning streak. But it’s notable that Duke is playing a mediocre schedule during a down year in the ACC.
Duke will have something to prove during conference tournament week as they prepare for March Madness.
Houston, SEC’s other contenders battle for remaining No. 1 seeds
With Auburn and Duke likely wrapping up No. 1 seeds, the race for the other two top spots becomes imperative. Leading the charge in the third spot is Big 12-leading Houston.
Losing only once since the start of December, the Cougars are quietly rolling behind a top-ten offense (No. 8) and defense (No. 3). Eighth in the nation in minutes continuity, Houston’s rotation played heavy minutes together over the last two seasons.
Houston avoids early upsets, making at least the second weekend in five straight NCAA Tournament appearances, but the Cougars also need to overcome being a No. 1 seed that lost in the Sweet 16 the last two seasons.
Houston isn’t in the historically-great SEC and doesn’t feature multiple NBA lottery picks like Duke, but Kelvin Sampson’s team has been remarkably consistent since suffering three losses during the first month of the season.
The SEC’s second-tier teams are so talented this season that four of the top six national title contenders come from the same league. It starts with Florida — which features a top-10 offense (No. 4) and defense (No. 7). The Gators are one of two teams to beat Auburn this season and also beat Tennessee by 30 when the Vols were No. 1 in the nation.
Depth plays a factor in Florida’s success, with its rotation helping offset a recent ankle injury to forward Alex Condon. The Gators have the signature wins and strong enough two-way play to make noise in March.
A high ceiling gives Alabama a shot at returning to the Final Four after last season’s run. The Crimson Tide are the highest-scoring team in the country and play the fastest tempo in the country.
The problem lies with inconsistent defense (No. 37 defensive efficiency on KenPom) that can let opponents score on them with ease during track meets. If Alabama’s offense is rolling, they can still hang with anyone in the country, but the Tide will need to get enough stops in March to make another deep run.
With the nation’s No. 1 defense, Tennessee remains an intriguing title contender. While last season’s Elite Eight team relied heavily on star Dalton Knecht to create offense, this year’s Vols are a lot more balanced when it comes to scoring.
That balance aided Tennessee in wins over title contenders like Florida and Alabama and should make them more versatile in the tournament.
Trio of intriguing teams make up the third tier of title contenders
Iowa State would possibly have better odds if the Cyclones stayed healthy during the regular season. Milan Momcilovic’s mid-season injury and recent missed games from Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones left the Cyclones undermanned during the middle of the season.
An elite perimeter group gives the Cyclones a top-25 offense (No. 21) and defense (No. 9) despite the missed time from key players. After Saturday’s blowout win over Arizona (+3500), Iowa State might be getting healthy at the right time and could be a sleeper No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
Michigan State goes 10 deep and wears down opponents with the nation’s No. 5 defense. The Big Ten leaders bring elite athleticism and, in typical Izzo fashion, rebound at a high level. The Spartans need to overcome shaky 29 percent perimeter shooting (347th nationally) if they want to beat the best teams in March. But it’s always difficult to go against the “Izzo in March” narrative when his team is rolling.
In his second season, Pitino fashioned St. John’s into a defensive juggernaut (No. 2 in defensive rating on KenPom) that claimed its first Big East title since 1985. Similar to Michigan State, St. John’s struggles to knock down 3-pointers (337th nationally at 30.2 percent) and can be inconsistent at making shots in general.
(Photo of Johni Broome: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
