The second men’s major championship of 2024 brings with it more opportunities to play a variety of proposition bets as well as take some good golfers at long odds to win. The PGA Championship hasn’t been kind to long shots since Rich Beem, Shaun Micheel, and Y.E. Yang won in the 2000s, but just down the road from Valhalla Golf Club, you will find Churchhill Downs where long shots have made many a bettor’s dreams come true. Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby at 16 to 1. Does that mean I should be looking at Xander Schauffele at 16 to 1 win at almost every major sportsbook?
The PGA Championship is set up to reward the best ball strikers in the world and the best ball strikers in the world win golf tournaments regularly on the PGA Tour.
Tiger Woods is usually the focus of most of the proposition betting lines when he is healthy enough to tee it up at a major championship, but the majority of sports books have made their Tiger Woods prop bets so outrageous that they aren’t even worth looking at. The best way I have seen to get any prop bet action on Tiger Woods is to bet against him in head-to-head and in three balls. Underdog and a few other sites have Tiger Woods over 71.5 for his first-round score option and I would jump on that if it were available in my area.
My favorite prop at the Masters this year was taking Rory McIlroy as the low Irishman over Shane Lowry, but that’s not an option this week. I want to find ways to bet Rory McIlroy without having to take him at +750 to win and the prop market is where I look. You can find many different ways to bet Rory McIlroy as long as you know where to look. I will share some of my favorite prop bets that are being offered later in the article.
Odds are from BetMGM and update live.
Sleepers
Si Woo Kim +9000 has gained strokes off the tee in every tournament since the Open Championship in July 2023. He has gained more than 11 strokes combined in his last two tournaments. He has gained strokes around the green in seven straight tournaments. Kim is the ultimate no-putt candidate this week. He lost more than 5 strokes putting at the Wells Fargo Championship and still managed to finish T16.
Sungjae Im +9000 has gained strokes off the tee in five straight tournaments. After the RBC Heritage, I was excited to bet him in Texas, but unfortunately, he was forced to withdraw due to illness. He bounced back at the Wells Fargo Championship placing T4. His iron play has been an issue this season. He has only gained strokes on the field on approach in two of his last twelve golf tournaments. Those statistics do scare me a bit. He’s close to figuring it out.
Corey Conners +11000 is coming into the PGA Championship off the back of gaining over 9.7 strokes ball striking at the Wells Fargo Championship. Conners’s game is built to compete at the PGA Championship. He has two top 17 finishes in his last three PGA Championships.
Keith Mitchell +15000 is getting back to dominating off the tee gaining over 10 strokes combined off the tee in his last two measured events. He has gained strokes on approach in eight straight measured events and has the type of game you see win or contend for PGA Championships. Love getting him at this price to pair with some high priced players.
Kurt Kitayama +20000 is on team no-putt this week for me. Kitayama is an excellent ball striker who pops up leaderboards when his putter allows him to convert all the chances he creates. He has gained strokes off the tee in five straight measured events and has gained more than 3 strokes on approach in three of his last five measured events. He finished T4 at last year’s PGA Championship so he has a taste for it.
Prop Bets
Always shop around at different sportsbooks for the best odds.
Top Lefty
Akshay Bhatia +165 won the 2018 Junior PGA Championship here and has an excellent season on the PGA Tour. He has struggled with his driver lately which has me a little concerned with his upside this week, but I still like Bhatia just a little bit more than Brian Harman who has struggled with every club except his putter lately.
Top Senior
Phil Mickelson +150 has gained 2.1 or more strokes in three straight measured events and just squeaks by Padraig Harrington for me this week as the top senior finisher. Mickelson has a long history here sleeping on the lead going into the weekend in 1996, finishing inside the top 10 when Tiger Woods won in 2000, and battling Rory McIlroy in darkness in 2014 for a second-place finish.
Winner to birdie the 72nd hole
Yes -120 The last three times Valhalla Golf Club hosted the PGA Championship there have been two playoffs and a near playoff in 2014. I believe the tournament will be close coming down to the end and someone will need to birdie 18 to win the golf tournament.
Round 1 Matchups
If you’re looking for more insights as to why I picked these players, please read my full PGA Championship preview. There are more than 3,000 words on a lot of players in this field and how they’re trending in advanced metrics.
Adam Scott -185 over Tiger Woods
Adam Scott has gained nearly 9 strokes combined ball striking in his last two golf tournaments while Tiger Woods looks like he is still knocking off the rust.
Corey Conners -165 over Nick Dunlap
Sungjae Im -165 over Beau Hossler
Keith Mitchell -135 over Thorbjørn Olesen
Russell Henley -120 over Stephan Jaeger
Patrick Reed +115 over Sam Burns
Top 40 Finish Parlay 3-Player
Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Wyndham Clark +180
Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, and Corey Conners +210
Top Finish Parlay
Scottie Scheffler Top 5, Rory McIlroy Top 10, Xander Schauffele Top 20 +600
Winner without Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, and Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Åberg +1400
Justin Thomas +3000
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
