By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
Don’t let anyone say that the late-season chaos in the Eastern Conference didn’t pay off. For the third time in four postseasons, we’re getting a first-round series between Florida’s teams. Isn’t that more fun than Lightning-Rangers and Panthers-Maple Leafs?
The dynamic, though, has changed in the last two years. The Lightning, for the first time in these teams’ playoff history, aren’t the defending champions. The Panthers, meanwhile, have become what might be the league’s most well-rounded team. The end result? We’re guaranteed to see an upset or an official power shift.
The odds
The last two Battles of Florida went decidedly in Tampa Bay’s favor and those hoping that the third iteration will be a tight battle should probably look away. This series doesn’t look very close on paper with the Lightning wilting since their apex. This isn’t the same team that went to three straight Stanley Cup Finals.
This also isn’t the same Panthers team that was heavily favored in 2022 as the Presidents’ Trophy winner and got humiliated by Tampa Bay in a second-round sweep. This Panthers group is battle-tested after a Stanley Cup Final run of last spring. They’re more playoff-proven, with a much better mix.
This will probably be a tighter series than it looks on paper. The Lightning’s deep playoff history obviously isn’t something to take lightly either. The Panthers are still the significantly stronger team, though. There’s a good reason they hold a heavy edge.
The numbers
The Panthers are such heavy favorites because of the plus-43 difference in Net Rating separating them from the Lightning.
At five-on-five this year, most things Tampa Bay can do, Florida does better. The Panthers challenge their opponents with a ton of high-danger passes and stop their opponents from matching that dynamic puck movement. The Lightning may be above average but fall short of Florida.
After being too reliant on their rush game, Paul Maurice has built up the Panthers’ forecheck over the last two years. The team is among the best at recovering pucks and extending zone time. That has made for an offense that can play the game both ways. That’s part of what’s behind Florida’s ability to pour on shots and scoring chances. Tampa Bay is slightly above average in creating shots both ways but doesn’t hold a candle to the Panthers.
Tampa Bay does have the advantage of converting on their chances better than Florida. That was especially true off the rush, where the Lightning have made the most of their chances.
The gaps between these two teams extend to play back in their own zone. The Lightning finished in the top half of the league in shot and expected goal suppression, but the Panthers are top-five in both. Florida’s ability to limit teams off the rush separates them; they’re one of the most aggressive teams with their zone entry denial. Tampa Bay’s also more mistake-prone with its puck retrievals which can extend time in the defensive zone, and haven’t always had the goalie support to mask that.
Goaltending has been a real strength for the Lightning when short-handed and that could become a problem for Florida, considering some of their finishing issues on the power play. But the Panthers may be able to counter that with their stout penalty kill if they can slow down the Lightning’s elite power play.
The Big Question
Can Tampa Bay’s defensive depth handle Florida’s deep forward group?
At a few different points during the regular season, the Lightning’s run — as a Cup-caliber team, as a team to be feared, as a team that could make the playoffs without breaking much of a sweat — seemed to be over. At least a third of that sentiment turned out to be premature, but it felt closer than ever to being the truth because of a few different factors. A major one: The Lightning, as a team, were putting up some of their worst defensive numbers in a generation.
Even by season’s end — after Andrei Vasilevskiy began to find his game and some deadline additions began to bear fruit — Tampa had allowed more actual goals per 60 at five-on-five than they had in a decade. It wasn’t just the residual effect of Vasilevskiy missing the start of the season and then taking until March to find his game, either, though that didn’t help. The Lightning’s expected goals percentage had bottomed out and their expected goals against/60 had come close.
The reason for that is simple enough. Age, injury and the salary cap had — and have — begun to take their toll on the team’s blue line. For now, the result is a second and third pair that should send up some red flags, especially against a team as deep as the Panthers. Nick Perbix, Erik Cernak, Haydn Fleury and deadline addition Matt Dumba are all underwater for the season in expected goals percentage. (Victor Hedman, you’ll be shocked to hear, has rounded into shape, and he’s brought partner Darren Radysh with him. Since March 7, his 61.1 expected goals percentage is ninth in the NHL among defensemen with at least 10 games played.)
Vasilevskiy and a bunch of power plays have helped paper over some of those depth issues, but the Lightning are still playing a dangerous game. As a team, the Panthers get their chances (sixth in expected goals/60) and effectively limit their opponents (fifth in expected goals percentage). More importantly, though, they have four high-end forwards sprinkled throughout their top six in Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. Hedman and Raddysh can’t play 40 minutes a night. If the Lightning only have one defensive pair that can reliably win the territorial battle, they may be in trouble. At a minimum, they’re putting a ton of responsibility on Vasilevskiy and the Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos lines.
Think of it this way — either Barkov or Tkachuk will be taking regular shifts against a defensive pair that’s below league average. Everyone should know better than to count out the Lightning, but that’s far from ideal.
The X-Factor
How ready is Aaron Ekblad?
Aaron Ekblad has had rough injury luck throughout his career, and 2023-24 wasn’t any different. He missed more than a month after offseason shoulder surgery, and now has played in just four games since March 9 but will be ready for Game 1, Maurice said.
When he was in the lineup, Ekblad’s individual production took a dip; 1.02 points per 60 is his worst such number in seven years and more than halved from 2021-22. Florida’s overall results at five-on-five, though, were strong; the Panthers’ expected goal share with Ekblad on the ice was 57.5, a hair off the best mark of his career. Their actual share was even better; 68 percent led their defensemen. The points might’ve dried up, in other words, but Ekblad seemed to dial things up elsewhere.
It’ll be interesting, though, to see whether he returns to a pair with Gustav Forsling. The two were good together, and Forsling kept rolling with Ekblad on the shelf, largely skating with Brandon Montour. Ekblad will replace Uvis Balinskis on the right side of the Panthers’ defense; if Maurice decides to keep Forsling and Montour together, Ekblad will skate with either Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Niko Mikkola.
The rosters
The Panthers’ roster is loaded with elite talent starting with their franchise cornerstone Barkov.
Barkov is arguably the best two-way player in the NHL and will likely take home his second Selke Trophy at the end of the season. The Panthers have only given up 1.99 expected goals against per 60 in his five-on-five minutes this season, which is 0.30 better than his teammates. That’s reflected on the scoresheet in his minutes with Florida only giving up 1.48 goals per 60 and translates to shorthanded situations. In about 930 minutes of play, he’s been on the ice for just 23 goals against.
Barkov can be leaned on to shut down top competition and be an offensive threat, between his playmaking and scoring chance generation. He makes smart defensive plays that extend zone time and pump up the Panthers’ cycle game. But he isn’t the only player the Lightning have to worry about on his line. There’s only a 57-goal scorer on his right wing in Sam Reinhart.
Reinhart’s having a career year on both ends of the ice. Barkov is the driver on that line in all situations, but it’s clear that these two players have been elevating each other to new heights. The Panthers have dominated five-on-five play in their minutes, with almost 70 percent of expected goals share while outscoring opponents 50-22.
Vladimir Tarasenko has been an excellent fit on the left side, adding another dynamic scoring threat to an already elite combo. His defensive game isn’t of any concern here next to the best two-way duo in the league.
The Panthers’ offense comes in waves, with a second line headlined by Tkachuk. While he hasn’t quite matched last year’s MVP-caliber season thanks to some early season concerns, everyone’s favorite rat king has continued to be a fantastic playmaker. Tkachuk boasts the second best Offensive Rating in this series to only Kucherov. There’s still another level he can hit, so it’s going to be a real problem for the Lightning if he starts cooking in the playoffs like last year.
Tkachuk’s passing is a perfect match for Verhaghe’s shooting, giving Florida two elite duos to worry about. He’s one of the best Panthers off the rush and has been one of their most clutch scorers in the playoffs these last few years. Sam Bennett at his best can bring some sandpaper to that line, but the wingers are the drivers of this combination.
With Tarasenko in the fold, Evan Rodrigues has moved into a more fitting depth role on the third line. It makes for a trio that is solid defensively and strong on the forecheck. The fourth line isn’t inspiring, but it matches Tampa Bay’s with a total minus-26 Net Rating.
A big difference between Florida and Tampa Bay’s blue lines is that the Lightning have one guy, Hedman. The Panthers have three guys. Health is a question for Ekblad, so is whether Forsling can do the heavy lifting if his partner isn’t 100 percent. He’s been outstanding defensively this season and helped lead the way when both Ekblad and Montour were sidelined to open the season which should instill some confidence.
Montour took time to hit his stride this season and the team hasn’t had the best shooting luck in his minutes. But to have someone of his caliber on the second pair shows how deep the Panthers are. The average number two defenseman on this year’s playoff teams has a plus-four Net Rating, Montour’s at plus-11.
The Lightning’s chances all hinge on their elite core. Up front that starts with Kucherov who had an MVP-caliber season. There’s been some analytical nitpicking in that vein, namely his defensive acumen, but that’s only through the lens of sizing up a historically deep field. It shouldn’t take away from what a game-breaker he’s been for Tampa Bay as one of the four best players on the planet this season. No one produces like him.
At five-on-five, the Lightning’s expected goal creation jumps by 0.44 with Kucherov on the ice relative to his teammates. Their scoring takes an even bigger leap of 0.90. Compare that to when he’s on the bench and the team can only muster 47 percent of the expected goals share and has been outscored 114-85.
Kucherov’s cerebral approach pairs with Brayden Point’s explosive skating and skill. That pair elevates whoever ends up rounding out that line, whether it’s deadline acquisition Anthony Duclair who is excelling outside of San Jose, or even Conor Sheary who has taken some reps there.
The second line is where some red flags emerge. On the surface, the line appears to grade out well, but together the combination has been shockingly ineffective. Stamkos is still a huge offensive threat, but his defense has been a major issue. Pairing him with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli hasn’t been enough to counter it, which is why that line has a sub-45 percent expected goals rate while being badly outscored.
The Lightning’s depth after that is even dicier. Nick Paul is the only bottom-six player with a positive Net Rating and while that’s to be expected to an extent, the rest of the group drags things down. The Lightning have too many black holes around him which has made it difficult to find the right mix — and why the team does so poorly without Kucherov on the ice. Together the bottom two lines add up to a minus-39 Net Rating, 13 worse than the average playoff team.
Those depth issues continue on defense and it’s why a potential Mikhail Sergachev return is so critical. After Hedman, there isn’t a lot to love. Hedman has proven in the past he can shoulder a heavy burden in the playoffs and thrive in that environment. He’s also performed admirably against Barkov and Tkachuk this year. But it’s a lot to ask of one player and without someone stepping up, it may be too much to handle. It may just be where the Lightning unravel.
The key matchup
Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy
At their best, both Sergei Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy can win this series on their own. They both have that series-stealing ability where they can get scorching hot, frustrating opposing teams into offensive oblivion. We saw that play out exactly for Bobrovsky in last year’s playoffs and we’ve seen Vasilevskiy do it countless times during Tampa Bay’s three consecutive Stanley Cup Final runs.
Predicting which one prevails is where it gets tricky. Vasilevskiy is currently one notch ahead of Bobrovsky, but that gap used to be significantly wider.
Bobrovsky has shined much brighter over the last calendar year with a Conn Smythe-worthy playoff run followed by his best regular season as a Panther. In contrast, Vasilevskiy wilted against a torrid Toronto offense last spring and has had some uncharacteristically poor numbers this season — an .899 save percentage while allowing 1.2 goals above expected. Bobrovsky is at .913 and 15.8 goals saved in comparison.
To Vasilevskiy’s credit, he’s been the stronger goalie of late and that could carry on into the series. But for Florida to have a chance he’ll need to be his vintage self. Just being marginally better than Bobrovsky probably won’t cut it.
The bottom line
The Lightning know what it takes to win and have the motivation of last year’s Round 1 exit to fuel them. Counting them out is impossible, but the odds are not in their favor. The Panthers are in a different position from last year — they’ve been a favorite all season long. It’s their series to lose.
References
How these projections work
How these projections performed last season
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
