A superstar performance from Lamar Jackson during a gutsy Baltimore Ravens’ Week 10 win has the reigning MVP back atop this season’s MVP betting board.
Previously tied with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Jackson’s MVP campaign was boosted by Baltimore’s 14-point comeback. Now sitting in pole position for MVP, Jackson (+110) created separation from Allen (+350) with his electric performance (25 of 33 for 290 yards and 4 touchdowns). The two formerly sat together at +300 after the completion of Week 9.
Even with Thursday night’s memorable outing from Jackson against Cincinnati, the 2024 MVP race is far from a two-player battle. Patrick Mahomes (+700) still lingers with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs backing his candidacy. An intriguing third tier of NFC East quarterbacks also hovers in case an untimely injury disrupts the current landscape.
Week 11 offers the perfect opportunity for other MVP candidates to close the gap or leapfrog Jackson as the favorite. Most notably, with Mahomes and Kansas City facing Allen and Buffalo in one of this season’s most anticipated games. In what amounts to an MVP-race undercard, the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts play the Washington Commanders and Jayden Daniels to begin the week on Thursday night.
Lamar Jackson takes control
Jackson delivered a signature performance in Week 10’s win over the Bengals. The Ravens hadn’t trailed by two touchdowns with Jackson at quarterback in three years. With the Bengals’ potent Joe Burrow-to-JaMarr Chase connection piling up early points, Jackson responded for Baltimore with three fourth-quarter TD passes. Jackson helped the Ravens sweep division rival Cincinnati and stay in the AFC North race with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The season-long numbers for Jackson are eye-opening. Second in total passing yards (2,669) and first among quarterbacks in rushing yards (538), Jackson is the position’s pinnacle when it comes to two-way offense. Baltimore’s offense ranks No. 1 overall in total yards and points per game during Jackson’s dominant start.
Avoiding mistakes is a vital part of Jackson’s ascendence. Commanding high usage within Baltimore’s offense, Jackson is No. 2 in interception rate, and the Ravens are No. 3 in offensive sack rate. A career-best 69-percent completion percentage puts Jackson at No. 7 among his peers. Now at 24 passing touchdowns to only two interceptions for the season, Jackson’s ridiculous numbers are hard to top.
Six of Baltimore’s next seven games come against teams with winning records, giving Jackson even more opportunities for big wins … or challenges that could bring him back to the pack. Following Week 10, though, Jackson is the favorite to be the league’s second back-to-back MVP winner this decade.
Allen still lurking
Although Buffalo won on the road over Indianapolis, Allen (+350) wasn’t particularly sharp. Allen failed to convert a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions, putting up a solid 280 passing yards and scoring once on the ground.
For the season, Allen maintains impressive numbers. He’s eighth in passing yards (2,281) and fourth in TD passes (17). Like Jackson, avoiding critical mistakes plays a big part in Allen’s exceptional season. Buffalo is No. 2 in offensive sack rate and No. 7 in interception rate.
It’s notable that Buffalo owns a five-game winning streak, building a sizable five-game lead in the AFC East. This despite injuries to some of Allen’s key targets at receiver — including new acquisition Amari Cooper. And while Jackson benefits from having the NFL’s leading rusher, Derrick Henry, in Baltimore’s backfield, Allen plays with an inconsistent Bills running game.
With Jackson’s extraordinary stats clearly standing ahead of Allen’s, it’s hard to compare current credentials if Baltimore remains a steady AFC contender. But could a convincing win over the reigning Super Bowl champs boost his stock?
Mahomes: Undefeated and … not the MVP favorite?
It’s strange to think of Patrick Mahomes (+700) as the clear third-ranked MVP candidate during an undefeated season. A two-time MVP coming off of back-to-back Super Bowls with a 9-0 start is a dream narrative to build from. That said, the numbers just haven’t been there for Mahomes to match Jackson and Allen.
Mahomes ranks only 10th in passing yards (2,208) with a modest 12-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio so far this season. It’s worth mentioning Mahomes is winning without a number of key weapons on offense. Still, the raw statistics don’t come close to matching Jackson or Allen at this stage.
It’s conceivable for Mahomes to quickly make up ground in the MVP race this week when the Chiefs go on the road to face Buffalo and Allen. Kansas City owns a 4-3 advantage over Buffalo when Mahomes plays Allen this decade. The Chiefs knocked the Bills out of the playoffs the past two years, with Buffalo winning both regular season matchups over the same span.
The NFC East’s dynamic duo and a misstep in Motown
Two NFC East quarterbacks in playoff position make up a third tier of candidates. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+1300) and Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels (+1600) face each other twice over the next five weeks — with Week 11’s primetime Thursday matchup as a showcase game. If one quarterback were to sweep the other, and run away with the NFC East, it could make for a viable fourth candidate down the stretch.
Both Hurts and Daniels have strong dual-threat profiles this season; they’re the top two rushing quarterbacks in the NFL after Jackson. Hurts only ranks 19th in passing yards (1,976) to this point in the season is a low number compared to other top-tier candidates. Daniels is the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year but only has nine touchdown passes to date.
Previously +700 after Week 9, the stock of Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (+2000) slipped considerably thanks to five interceptions against Houston. Despite the turnovers, Goff and the Lions deserve credit for rallying to beat the Texans on the road. But a quarterback hasn’t thrown five picks in an NFL game since 2019, which tarnishes Goff’s chances.
(Photo of Josh Allen: Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
