Nothing has happened in the last seven weeks to change my mind — this is a bad MLB draft class, in many different ways, but however you shake it, it’s thinner up top and through the next few rounds than a typical draft class, let alone the outstanding group we had in 2023.
This is my last major update to the Big Board, although I may make minor changes if I hear anything significant between now and the draft. By the middle of the second round, which is around pick 55, the class has thinned out substantially, notably on the college side where the safety of the back-end starter or the quality utility infielder is largely absent.
I also think this is a poor year to try to shave a few million with your first pick to go well over slot with several later selections, a strategy Philadelphia tried in 2016 without success (Mickey Moniak, Kevin Gowdy, Cole Stobbe) while Atlanta fared somewhat better (Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller). There are some interesting high school arms, but I suspect a few will sneak into the back of the first round and most will be gone before the second round, for reasons which I hope will be apparent as you peruse this list. It’s lacking in high school position players with promising hit tools, and the college pitching class drops off after the top two guys. It’s just one of those years.
This is my ranking of the prospects, not a prediction in any way of where they will be drafted (that will come later this week). I don’t consider signability on this list — it is just about how good they are as prospects, including their present tools and skills and the projection going forward on their abilities and their physical gifts as well. I don’t have access to all of the information teams have, including medical information, much of which won’t become public until after the draft.
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Final 2024 MLB Draft top-100 prospect ranking: Condon No. 1; Waldschmidt makes leap
