After Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty was the clear favorite to win the Heisman Trophy for a few weeks, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has now taken the top spot. However, the race appears to be wide open between four contenders.
Gabriel currently is listed at +240 on BetMGM to win the Heisman. Colorado’s Travis Hunter is right behind at +250, followed by Miami’s Cam Ward (+300) and Jeanty (+450).
What sparked the change? Jeanty was mortal at UNLV on Friday. He had 128 rushing yards and a touchdown to go with three receptions for 11 yards. That’s still a very good game by most standards, but Jeanty racked up those yards on 33 carries.
The star running back finished with 3.9 yards per carry and didn’t have a run of 20 yards or longer. That’s definitely not a bad day at the office but it is by far his lowest yard-per-carry number of the season. He came into the game averaging 9.9 yards per carry and hadn’t had a game with a yards per carry average below seven before this one.
Jeanty is still in the mix, but his move down on the betting board shows how hard it will be for a running back from Boise State to win the Heisman. UNLV was likely the toughest remaining regular season game on Boise’s schedule, so it’s all going to be about numbers and what everyone else in contention does.
It’s less about the numbers for Gabriel, who is in the favorite position mostly because he is the quarterback of the top-ranked team. Gabriel is eighth in the country in passing yards (2,371) and tied for 10th in touchdown passes (18). Oregon has a potentially tricky road test at Michigan on Saturday and also has a trip to Wisconsin still on the schedule, but the Ducks will be double-digit favorites in every game until the Big Ten title game.
Hunter took a dip in the odds after a recent injury but had a massive game against Cincinnati on Saturday with 153 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He also had four pass breakups on defense. Hunter isn’t the most prolific receiver in the country; he’s 10th in yards (757) and six in touchdowns (eight). However, his two-way play coupled with the fact that Colorado is actually winning (6-2) should have him in contention the rest of the season if he stays healthy.
Ward might actually have a stronger case than Gabriel right now. He’s second in the country in passing yards (2,746) and touchdown passes (24), and, like Gabriel’s Oregon, Miami is undefeated.
It seems like a bet on Gabriel would be a bet on him having a big game in the Big Ten title game for an undefeated Oregon team. The others have better production to back up their candidacy for the award.
2024 Heisman Trophy odds
All odds from BetMGM.
For now, the odds are saying it’s a four-horse race. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is fifth in the odds at +2500, a big dropoff from Jeanty. Georgia’s Carson Beck (+3500) and Hunter’s Colorado teammate Shedeur Sanders (+5000) are the only others with 50-to-1 or shorter odds.
Barring injury, it does seem unlikely for anyone outside the top group to pass up the current group of top contenders. Even if Georgia keeps rolling and Beck puts up big numbers down the stretch, it seems unlikely he could overcome throwing three interceptions in each of Georgia’s big games this year (at Alabama and at Texas).
The Heisman is often decided late in the season, though, so it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see a long shot come out of nowhere to join the list of contenders as the year progresses.
(Photo of Dillon Gabriel: Chris Pietsch / The Register-Guard / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
