We’re already in Week 10. Time flies in this thing of ours.
As November shifts from Halloween to Thanksgiving, many people start thinking about family time, holiday prep, travel, and gift shopping — the usual fare. But for fantasy managers, thoughts turn to, “Wow, three games on Thanksgiving Day and another on Black Friday.” The season’s climax is near.
This time of year, every week feels magnified in fantasy football. Wins and losses resonate more. Many managers are fighting for their playoff lives, while others, if lucky, are competing for playoff byes.
Soon, fantasy managers will start hearing a lot of talk about fantasy playoff schedules. For most, playoffs begin in Week 15, with some leagues starting as early as Week 14. The culmination of summer draft prep comes to a close on Christmas Day — fantasy championship week.
Enjoy these next few weeks — the season will be over before you know it.
Here are a few things for fantasy managers to watch in Week 10 and beyond.
1- Air Harbaugh
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s arrival this offseason in Los Angeles coincided with significant offensive personnel turnover. Austin Ekeler headed to Washington, and longtime standout WR Keenan Allen was traded to Chicago, leaving the Chargers with more vacated targets than any other team. Adding in Roman’s historically run-heavy approach as the OC in Baltimore, combined with Harbaugh’s ground-and-pound scheme from Michigan, no team experienced a greater philosophical shift offensively than the Chargers.
This naturally led to an ADP free fall for Justin Herbert this draft season. Herbert, who had never finished lower than QB15 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) in any season of his career, became an afterthought for drafters. Early in the season, they were proven correct — from Weeks 1-4, Herbert failed to pass for more than 200 yards in a single game.
Since their Week 5 bye, however, the Chargers have opened things up offensively, and Herbert is thriving. The run-heavy Chargers have shifted slightly more toward the pass, allowing Herbert to find his rhythm.
Jim Harbaugh is falling in love with Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey. Throw to lead. Run to close. pic.twitter.com/dJeAQVlfaq
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 5, 2024
From Weeks 6-9, Herbert is the QB8 overall. He has passed for at least 279 yards in each of the past three games. Maybe Roman and Harbaugh did some self scouting. Or maybe they realized they have Justin “freaking” Herbert at quarterback and it was time to open things up a little more. Whatever they are doing, it is working. The Chargers are 3-1 since their bye week and are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff race.
2. No DK Metcalf, no problem — JSN Smash Week
Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished as the WR1 in Week 9, delivering his best game as a pro. Seattle featured him early and often, and he ended the game with 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was targeted 13 times, achieving an alpha WR1-level 35.3% target share, an impressive 42.1% first-read rate, and a 67.2% air yards share. His role expanded to levels we hadn’t seen with JSN in his professional career, and his average depth of target soared to 20.3 yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an Average Depth of Target of 20.3 yards yesterday. And smashed.
His aDOT last season (under Fraudron) was a pathetic 6.4 yards. He’s had five games this season under 7.5 yards. #FreeJSN pic.twitter.com/2IxF1tdnaw
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 4, 2024
What his role will look like when Metcalf returns remains to be seen, but it’s easy to be optimistic after a performance like this from a 22-year-old. Fantasy managers rostering JSN should be very excited — this could be the start of a strong second half of the season for the 2023 first-round draft pick.
3. De’Von Achane: Unicorn bell cow
Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury has been sweet relief for De’Von Achane managers — multiple weeks of misery have given way to two weeks of sheer bliss, with plenty more to come. Achane is not a classical “bell cow” back, but something even more exciting — a “Unicorn Bell Cow” (print the tee shirts, let’s make this a thing). His recent usage evokes peak Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey type seasons — break fantasy type usage.
De’Von Achane IS BACK with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Last two games:
29.4 fantasy points per game
63% snaps
40% attempts
70% routes
25% targetsSharing touches with Mostert but is the lead pass-down option, which has been huge.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 3, 2024
Achane’s growth as a receiver has been noteworthy all season long. He has a strong shot of leading all RBs in catches this season. He trails only Kamara and Bijan Robinson. He has more catches than Breece Hall — last season’s RB receptions leader — despite playing one fewer game and having eight fewer targets.
Older RBs have dominated the first half of the season, but fantasy leagues could be decided by “which team has Achane?”
4. Concerns grow for Chris Olave
Chris Olave suffered his second concussion this season, and the fourth of his career. Much like Tua Tagovailoa earlier this year, Olave’s timeline to return is understandably up in the air. Fantasy managers rostering Olave are going to have to play the waiting game.
Darren Rizzi said Chris Olave is taking things slow and no decisions on his immediate or long term future have been made
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) November 6, 2024
Sitting out the rest of the season is a distinct possibility for Olave. The Saints offense is in a tailspin, and the loss of their star WR will further compound their issues. There are injuries throughout the team. Head Coach Dennis Allen was fired. Former Saints wideout Michael Thomas went on a rant on X, directed his comments towards Derek Carr’s poor play. This is an absolute mess.
Reporters are looking for answers anywhere they can. Even parking lot issues.
5. Chuba Hubbard pay day
The Carolina Panthers continue to put great emphasis on the RB position — for better or for worse. In 2023, they signed Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million dollar contract. They selected Jonathon Brooks as the first RB off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. This week, they tripled down, signing Chuba Hubbard to a lucrative deal that will keep him in Carolina next season and beyond.
Sources: The #Panthers have locked in one of their young stars, agreeing to terms with RB Chuba Hubbard on 4-year, $33.2M contract extension.
He gets a max value of $37.2M with $15M in new fully guaranteed money. pic.twitter.com/oDOf5AxmDM
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024
Hubbard is enjoying his best season as a pro. He is the RB9 overall, averaging 15.3 FPPG. There is no doubt that he earned a significant raise through his quality play this season, but most assumed it would be another team paying him and not the Panthers.
How Hubbard and Brooks co-exist is anyone’s guess. Stay tuned.
6. DeAndre Hopkins’ Rashee Rice impersonation
DeAndre Hopkins was slow getting started in his first game with the Chiefs in Week 8, with only 2 catches and minimal production. But Week 9 was anything but. Hopkins finished with 8 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs. Hopkins scored 28.6 PPR points — his highest scoring game since 2022. He did so with increased slot usage, much like Rashee Rice early in the season.
Are the Chiefs turning DeAndre Hopkins into Rashee Rice? In Week 9, Hopkins had a 7.3 yard aDOT and a 38.0% slot rate.
Hopkins has run go routes on 7.1% and 14.7% of his routes in 2 games with KC. With TEN, that go route rate was 22.2% or higher in 5 of 6 games
— Adam Aizer (@AdamAizer) November 7, 2024
Fantasy managers who are nervous about Hopkins shouldn’t be. Despite his scoring prowess, he only posted a 20.5% target share, a number that could grow, along with Hopkins’ snap share, as he becomes more and more acclimated to playing in this offense.
Hopkins’ big game propelled Patrick Mahomes to his first game with 3 TD passes since Week 7 of 2023.
7. Cade Otton: Tampa Bay’s WR1
Cade Otton has been on an absolute tear. The loss of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans has opened up a massive opportunity for the third-year pro, and he is thriving in his new role. Otton is up to TE3 on the season, and his recent play has been even better.
This is Otton’s third year with the team, and he has done just enough to be on the fantasy radar in deeper leagues during his first two years as a pro, but almost exclusively as a bye-week fill-in type. He has now evolved into the preferred target of Baker Mayfield — the current QB2.
Cade Otton in two games without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin:
– 21 targets
– 27% target share
– 50.8 PPR points pic.twitter.com/D4KULyCKVl— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 5, 2024
Most PPR points in the NFL over the last three weeks among non-QBs:
1. Saquon Barkley (71.7)
2. De’Von Achane (69.3)
3. Cade Otton (68.8)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 7, 2024
Over his past three games, Otton is averaging 22.9 FPPG. In this stretch, he leads the NFL in catches (25), and trails only Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson in targets (31). He has finished as a top 5 scorer at the TE position in all three weeks.
Mike Evans will return at some point, but Otton should remain heavily involved in the offense.
8. The Kyle Pitts rollercoaster ride continues
The Atlanta Falcons offense is one of the league’s most improved. They are seventh in the NFL with 246.3 passing yards per game — up from 22nd in 2023. Kirk Cousins has passed for 17 TDs. Drake London and Darnell Mooney are both top 12 scorers at the WR position, and Bijan Robinson is RB4.
And then there is Kyle Pitts. While fantasy managers have to be satisfied with his TE7 scoring numbers, Week 9 was a reminder that there will continue to be ups and downs. One week after a season-high 25.1 points scored, Pitts dropped down to only 2.1.
Kyle Pitts saw a season low 4.2% target share (1 target) in Week 9. He did catch the target, though, for 11 yards.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 4, 2024
Nearly 60% of Pitts’ total points were scored in three of his nine games. The spike weeks are great, but the overall scheme of the offense makes it difficult for Pitts to be relied on for consistent scoring. Per Fantasy Points Data, he is tied with Robinson with a 13.8% target share — fourth on the team behind London, Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud.
9. Cooper Rush time in Dallas
Dak Prescott’s season is in jeopardy due to a partially torn hamstring. He is headed to IR, and his season could be finished.
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said Dak Prescott (hamstring) is still going through the process. He’s at The Star today. “I know he wants to keep playing. … It’s obviously a serious injury.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 7, 2024
Dallas will now turn to veteran backup Cooper Rush. This is not new territory for Rush, who has been with the team for seven seasons and has an impressive 5-1 record as a starter. In 2022, Rush led a four-game winning streak early in the season before Prescott’s return, with that team ultimately winning 12 regular-season games. This year, Rush takes over a 3-5 Cowboys team searching for answers.
Everything on offense in Dallas begins and ends with CeeDee Lamb. Prescott’s loss downgrades the entire offense, but how significantly will it impact Lamb’s rest-of-season outlook?
CeeDee Lamb in five games with Cooper Rush in Weeks 2-6, 2022:
– 32.9% targets
– 41.2% first-read tgts
– 31/380/2 receiving (16.5 PPR FPG)78.6% of Lamb’s targets were catchable in this span. Not bad. Dak has given Lamb a catchable pass 82.5% of time this year @FantasyPtsData
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 5, 2024
Expect some good old-fashioned backup QB tunnel vision. Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury, but as long as he’s on the field, he should remain among the league leaders in target share and first-read rate.
10. ‘Mondre StevenSZN?
I could have dedicated a portion of this article to Drake Maye, and I am sure I will at some point over the next few weeks. Maye rushed for 95 yards — the most by a Patriots starting quarterback in a game since 1976. The Patriots lost, but Maye’s presence has injected life into the Patriots offense. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this over the next few weeks could be Rhamondre Stevenson.
16. Rhamondre Stevenson remained a bellcow this week, receiving a 78.7% backfield weighted opportunity share.
In the two games since he returned from injury, he’s seen:
– 81.1% carry share
– 11.3% target share
– 5 of 6 touches inside the 10
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024
Stevenson is thriving. He has scored 23.5 and 22.4 points in consecutive weeks, with 8 catches and 4 TDs in that span. The usage has been phenomenal. Maye found Stevenson on a game-tying TD pass that sent the game to overtimein Week 9. This is exactly what New England had in mind when they re-signed Stevenson this past offseason — a RB who can help Maye reach his full potential and excel alongside him.
Patriots, RB Rhamondre Stevenson agree to terms on 4-year, $36M extension with $17M guaranteed. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/Ck4Om0mbDJ
— NFL (@NFL) June 20, 2024
11. Christian McCaffrey returns
Last season, Christian McCaffrey finished as the RB1, averaging 24.5 FPPG. His fantasy scoring numbers have been legendary, and he is one of the all-time greats in this thing of ours.
Christian McCaffrey’s 391 PPR Points were the most scored at the position since…….Christian McCaffrey in 2019 (471!)
CMC now has three of the last five highest PPR RB scoring totals- 2023, 2019 and 2018 (385)
Fantasy legend.
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) January 4, 2024
He was activated off of the I.R. and looks set to make his debut this Sunday. But how will CMC perform after an injury-plagued season that included a trip to Germany to see a specialist about his Achilles tendonitis? Kyle Shanahan was his usual self, providing great clarity to fantasy managers everywhere, detailing everything we should expect touch-wise.
Q: If he does look like the Christian [McCaffrey] of old, does his workload become the workload of old?
“It definitely could, but it also definitely might not.” pic.twitter.com/J4ltkzz46u
— KNBR (@KNBR) November 6, 2024
Even if CMC concedes more touches than usual, it is hard to imagine him not making a major impact fantasy-wise. He can thrive on high-value touches alone. The 49ers are only 4-4 on the season and could use a healthy dose of CMC magic. Fantasy managers could as well.
12. Justin Jefferson: Smash game
There is no better way to end your weekend than with a Justin Jefferson smash game.
Minnesota started the season 5-0 before dropping two straight to Detroit and the the Rams. The Vikings badly needed a win, and a Sunday night primetime matchup against Indianapolis provided exactly what they were looking for. Justin Jefferson led the way, finishing with a season-high 137 receiving yards.
Justin Jefferson caught 7 of his 9 targets for 137 yards against the Colts, generating a season-high +53 receiving yards over expected.
Jefferson accounted for over half of the Vikings’ air yards (53.4%) for the third time this season.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/8IOgKp7Yy8
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 4, 2024
Jefferson has now recorded 100+ receiving yards in two consecutive games for the first time this season. This week, he has a strong chance of making it three in a row as the Vikings face off against Jacksonville and their fantasy-friendly secondary. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and touchdowns.
13. James Conner: Forced missed tackles king
James Conner missed out on a massive performance on Sunday. Arizona scored three first half rushing TDs, but none went to Conner. Trey Benson, Emari Demercado and TE Trey McBride all found the end zone — just like we drew it up in this past week’s fantasy rankings. Don’t you just love the randomness of fantasy football sometimes?
Zero pass TDs in the Cardinals vs. Bears game.
The 3 rush TDs:
Emari Demercado
Trey Benson
Trey McBrideFantasy is fun!
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 4, 2024
Even without finding the end zone Sunday, Conner was still his usual productive self. He finished with 14.9 fantasy points — his seventh game this season with an RB20 or better finish. Conner has been unusually elusive this year, and he is dominating everyone else at the position in forced missed tackles.
This is one of the most absurd stats I’ve seen in awhile.
Top-three in missed tackles forced, per @FantasyPtsData:
54 – James Conner
31 – Kenneth Walker
31 – Bijan Robinson pic.twitter.com/xlwHDbIBr1— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 7, 2024
Conner has played in every single game this season, a significant accomplishment for a player who has missed time in every season of his career. If Conner can hold up, his strong play could help lead fantasy managers to postseason wins. Arizona’s schedule in Weeks 15-17 is about as fantasy friendly as it gets for RBs, with games against New England, Carolina and the LA Rams.
(Top photo of Justin Herbert: Jason Miller/Getty Images)
