Can you, in your wildest dreams, imagine a fairy tale in which former President Joe Biden proposes a rare earth mineral deal — much less has the deal accepted —to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which the Strongman of Kyiv agrees to equally share “earn[ed] income from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets”?
Me, neither.
Yet, a Ukrainian news publisher claims to have released the full text of the alleged Ukraine rare earth mineral deal ahead of expectations and that Zelensky will sign it on Friday when he visits the White House to meet with President Donald Trump.
The alleged language of the agreement stops short of the security guarantees Kyiv has consistently demanded from the U.S. but appears, if authentic, to establish a clear future interest for the United States in the country’s virtually untapped rare earth minerals deposits.
More winning for Trump and America? In my opinion, not yet — which I’ll explain as we go.
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The alleged document, as published by the Kyiv Independent, proclaims the desire of the American people to “invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine,” and:
The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.
Speaking to journalists on Feb. 26, Zelensky said:
The important thing is that the agreement mentions ‘partners,’ and this fund is Ukrainian-American, not American.
While critics have ripped Zelensky for having the audacity to demand that a peace agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine War be agreed upon not only by the U.S. and Russia but also by Ukraine, the Ukrainian president’s reasoning is the same reason any country on earth would — or should — have with respect to its independence.
The alleged text reads, in part:
BILATERAL AGREEMENT ESTABLISHING TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR A RECONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT FUND
WHEREAS the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022;
WHEREAS the American people desire to invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine;
WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine desire a lasting peace in Ukraine and a durable partnership between their two peoples and governments;
WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine recognize the contribution that Ukraine has made to strengthening international peace and security by voluntarily abandoning the world’s third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons;
WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine following a lasting peace;
NOW, THEREFORE, the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine (each, a “Participant”) hereby enter into this Bilateral Agreement Establishing Terms and Conditions for a Reconstruction Investment Fund to deepen the partnership between the United States of America and Ukraine, as set forth herein.
While the “whereas” stuff is assumptive, the rubber hits the road in the “therefores” (emphasis, mine):
1. The Governments of Ukraine and the United States of America, with the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, intend to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund (Fund), partnering in the Fund through joint ownership, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. … More detailed terms pertaining to the Fund’s governance and operation will be set forth in a subsequent agreement (the Fund Agreement) to be negotiated promptly after the conclusion of this Bilateral Agreement. …
2. The Fund will collect and reinvest revenues contributed to the Fund, minus expenses incurred by the Fund, and will earn income from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government).
3. The Government of Ukraine will contribute to the Fund 50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets … as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine.
There are 11 steps in total, all of which make it clear that no final agreement has been reached — rather, what we’re seeing is an “agreement to agree, maybe,” heavily dependent on a still-to-come Fund Agreement.
On one of the positive notes, language aimed at Russia, that doesn’t name the country directly, may also allow the agreement to exclude China from Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction:
[The] United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine following a lasting peace.
That should be a no-brainer, but given the insanity of the last administration, it behooves both the U.S. and Ukraine to be clear about a post-war Ukraine.
According to the alleged text, “The Fund agreement shall be ratified by the Parliament of Ukraine according to the Law of Ukraine on International Treaties of Ukraine.”
Not to be cynical, but one question, as we close this one out:
Is it conceivable that Zelensky could agree to such an agreement, only to have the Ukrainian Parliament reject it, thus giving the Strongman of Kyiv an “I tried” out?
