Topline
Former President Donald Trump’s federal indictment on charges related to his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House didn’t appear to dull his support from GOP voters as he increased or maintained his lead over Republican competitors in the most recent polls, and one poll now has Trump tied with President Joe Biden in a potential matchup after starting the month behind him.
Former President Donald Trump’s 37 felony charges aren’t slowing his campaign as he maintained a … [+]
Key Facts
A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday morning that was taken Friday to Sunday found 59% (with a margin of error of +/-2) of potential GOP primary voters would vote for Trump if the primary was held today (with a margin of error of +/-2) —a slight increase from last week’s poll—taken before the indictment, in which 55% supported him.
In the most recent poll, just 19% of voters supported Trump’s closest Republican primary competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as their first choice.
A FiveThirtyEight polling average also showed Trump with a slight uptick in GOP primary voter support, increasing his mark from 53.7% on June 6 to 54.3% on Tuesday.
Trump was also doing better in a potential matchup with Biden than DeSantis, as the Morning Consult poll had Trump and Biden tied with 42% of voters supporting each, while a potential matchup between Biden and DeSantis gave Biden a four-point lead.
Before the indictment Thursday, Morning Consult had both DeSantis and Trump behind Biden by two percentage points in a hypothetical election; Trump’s biggest lead in a general election poll was in late May when a Premise poll had him up 6 points on Biden.
Tangent
A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken after the indictment found 81% of self-identified Republicans thought the charges against Trump are politically motivated. However, the poll also reported 62% of respondents across political parties thought it was “believable” that Trump stored classified documents illegally at Mar-A-Lago.
Key Background
Trump was indicted last Thursday on 37 federal felony charges for allegedly mishandling classified documents in a way that put national security at risk, making him the first former president to face federal charges. The indictment alleges the former president was hiding classified documents throughout Mar-A-Lago—even in his bathroom—and that he asked his lawyers to lie about having documents after receiving a subpoena legally requiring him to return the records. The indictment stems from an investigation into classified documents that were brought to Trump’s Mar-A-Lago property after his presidential term. On Saturday, Trump compared the “joke of an indictment” to the two impeachment efforts when he was in office and said the indictment is similar to campaign tactics used in Russia and China. The charges, however, or a conviction, would not keep Trump from holding office if reelected, experts have said, noting there are no rules in the Constitution prohibiting it.
What To Watch For
Trump will surrender to law enforcement in Miami at 3 p.m. and is expected to appear before a magistrate judge and plead not guilty to the felony counts against him. But the public will have to wait to hear what happens in the courtroom as a judge ruled not to allow recordings of the proceedings, cameras inside the courtroom or journalists to have phones or devices to tweet out information.
Further Reading
Trump Arraignment: Here’s When He’ll Appear In Court—And Why You’ll Have To Wait To Hear About It (Forbes)
Trump indictment: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows most Republicans think charges are politically motivated (Reuters)
2024 Republican Primary Polls (Morning Consult)
National : President: general election : 2024 Polls (FiveThirtyEight)
