The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl, which means Patrick Mahomes is favored to win Super Bowl MVP. Of course he is.
Mahomes has already won three Super Bowls and claimed Super Bowl MVP honors every time. He plays quarterback for the team that is favored to win the Super Bowl and is the most accomplished quarterback in the league. There was never a doubt that a healthy Mahomes would be the favorite to win MVP ahead of the game.
Mahomes is quite a dominant favorite, though. Mahomes is +105 to win the award on BetMGM. Even when the Chiefs were small underdogs last year against the San Francisco 49ers, Mahomes was still the favorite to win MVP, with odds at +135 ahead of the game. It makes sense that Mahomes would be a more significant favorite this year, with the Chiefs opening as 1.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The surprise here is the player in second place: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
Philadelphia has two players who have realistic paths to Super Bowl MVP: Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Despite Super Bowl MVP being a quarterback-heavy award, Barkley is actually the first listed Eagle in the odds. Barkley’s odds to win Super Bowl MVP opened at +2500 (compare that to Mahomes’ +400 and Hurts’ +1400) and have now shrunk to +240. Hurts is +375.
Hurts looked plenty healthy in the NFC Championship Game, rushing for three touchdowns, but Barkley has emerged as the star of this team. He averaged 7.9 yards per carry and had three rushing scores against Washington after crossing the 2,000-yard mark in the regular season. It often feels like quarterbacks win player-of-the-game awards as a default, but Barkley is such a major part of the Philadelphia offense that any success for the Eagles likely requires a big game from him.
The Chiefs are -130 on the moneyline as of Monday afternoon, which isn’t that far from Mahomes’ MVP odds. It makes sense that a Chiefs win is extremely likely to result in Mahomes winning Super Bowl MVP. There are some scenarios where another Chief wins the award, but it’s not likely. Travis Kelce is +1500, and Xavier Worthy is +3000. The hard part about those two is that any touchdowns they get will almost certainly come from Mahomes. Sure, Kelce could run in from a wildcat formation, or Worthy could score on an end around or something like that, but for the most part, any stats that Kelce and Worthy get, Mahomes will also get.
Super Bowl 59 MVP odds
Quarterbacks have won 33 of the 58 Super Bowl MVPs and 13 of the last 18. Wide receivers have actually won more Super Bowl MVPs (eight) than running backs (seven), including Cooper Kupp three years ago. The last running back to win it was Terrell Davis in Super Bowl 32. Meanwhile, six wide receivers have won it in the last 20 years. As football has shifted to more and more of a passing game, that’s not a major surprise, but Barkley is a generationally good running back having a historic season. If ever there was a running back in position to end the drought, it’s Barkley. That said, the Eagles still have to win and he has to outperform Hurts to win it.
For more on Super Bowl MVP, we enlisted some of our staff to make their picks now that the matchup is set.
Tashan Reed: The Eagles have the superior roster, but I have the Chiefs winning anyway because of the undeniable greatness of my MVP pick — Patrick Mahomes. He’ll make plenty of plays with both his arms and legs to complete the three-peat.
Brandon Funston: Jalen Hurts — Chasing the +350 upside on Hurts, who has won 13 straight games in which he’s attempted at least five passes. In those games, Hurts has 17 TD passes and 16 rushing TDs. I know there’s strong sentiment around Saquon for MVP, but if Philly pulls off the upset, I want to be backing the position that has won the award 11 of the past 15 Super Bowls.
Nick Kosmider: It may be folly at this point to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but Saquon Barkley has been the NFL’s best player this season. That’s been especially true in the playoffs, with Barkley rushing for a ridiculous 147.3-yard average across three postseason games with five touchdowns. He’ll break off another long TD run in the Super Bowl to fuel an Eagles victory and make him the first running back to capture the honor since Terrell Davis in 1998.
Dan Santaromita: Patrick Mahomes. I could try to be clever and creative, but why fight what feels inevitable? Sure, the Chiefs could lose, but I’m going to pick Mahomes every single time. Keep it simple.
Hannah Vanbiber: The heart wants Saquon. The head wants Mahomes. The internet loves to hate on Mahomes and the Chiefs, but what a time to be alive and witness history. Mahomes will scramble, dive, slide, run and execute Andy Reid’s plays to clutch perfection.
Jess Bryant: While I still think Barkley takes the MVP award (he was my pick before the playoffs began), it’s harder to take him at this value than when the odds were +1700. With Hurts at +350, behind Barkley, I think Philly’s QB is the better value, especially against a Chiefs defense that is more susceptible to the pass than the run and the Eagles’ commitment to the tush push.
Mike Hume: Trent McDuffie at +25000 (or any other Chiefs defensive back): Let’s be clear, this is a dumb bet. The smart money is on one of the two quarterbacks, given the history of the award. But for the sake of variety, here’s the thinking:
The only way a defensive player makes any sense here is as a low-wager, high-return flier. Defensive players have won the award previously — most recently the Broncos pass-rusher Von Miller in 2016 and the Seahawks’ Malcolm Smith two years earlier — but it requires a truly exceptional performance and a muted performance from the winning QB. Smith earned the award for recovering a fumble and returning an interception for a touchdown, while Russell Wilson finished with a modest 206 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-8 route.
Now imagine: Patrick Mahomes does just enough to overcome an excellent Eagles defense, while Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitz packages prompt Jalen Hurts to heave the ball into the secondary, right into the arms of a waiting defensive back for the second time in a game short on scoring and possessions. In terms of MVP options with long odds, this outcome feels more plausible than one receiver dominating the game. Is it likely? Absolutely not. But … is it possible?
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
