The MLB playoffs start Oct. 3, meaning it’s officially crunch time for a few teams mere games out of securing wild-card bids. The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds are both 1 1/2 games back of a National League playoff berth, and the Toronto Blue Jays have slipped to 2 1/2 games back in the American League.
But what if the MLB regular season ended Monday?
If it did, the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners would receive first-round byes in the AL, with the Minnesota Twins winning the Central and the Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros nabbing wild-card spots. In the NL, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers would skip into the Division Series, the Milwaukee Brewers would claim the Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks would land wild-card berths.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic)
The third-seeded Twins would play the Astros (No. 6), and the Rays (No. 4) would play the Rangers (No. 5) in the American League wild-card games. The National League wild-card games would pit the Brewers (No. 3) against the Diamondbacks (No. 6), and the Phillies (No. 4) against the Cubs (No. 5).
Which teams would have the edge in these scenarios and who should you be watching this week? The Athletic has you covered as the 2023 MLB playoff picture starts taking shape. The potential matchups will be updated every Monday.
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Wild-card matchups: Who has the edge?
Rangers at Rays
What’s felt like a reasonable ALCS showdown could happen now as early as the wild-card round. Tampa Bay and Texas own the American League’s two best run differentials, and they’re headed in opposite directions at the moment. The Rays have stabilized after a rickety July, and Texas is tailspinning with nine losses in its last 10 games. However, even as Texas has floundered of late, Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have pitched well as deadline acquisitions, and the middle infield of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien may be the best in the game. If the series were happening tomorrow, Tampa Bay. If it’s happening in October, Texas has time to rediscover its footing.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic)
Astros at Twins
During their ignominious postseason losing streak — it’s losses in 18 straight games and eight straight series, plus one wild-card game — the Twins have seldom actually been favored. They had home field for the ’02 ALCS (against an Angels team with a better record), the ’06 ALDS (against an A’s team where Billy Beane’s you-know-what worked for a single series) and in 2020 against an Astros team that had finished under .500 but knew its way around October like the hallways of its high school. This year? No different. Minnesota may get each game at Target Field, as it did in 2020 against Houston, but the more talented team is also the one that knows how to win in October.
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Cubs at Phillies
Did you see what Aaron Nola did Sunday? Yes, caveats and qualifications that these Cardinals are not anyone alive’s version of the Cardinals, but Nola went seven one-hit frames (nine punchouts, one free pass) to pitch the Phillies to a sweep. It’s pretty easily the right-hander’s best start of the season and a nice step forward after a solid outing earlier in the week against the Giants. As I said last week, the Phillies are scary in October because their ceiling of high-end talent is so high, and Nola’s such an important part of that.
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Diamondbacks at Brewers
Break out your Goldschmidt-off-Marcum and Tony Plush series-winning single GIFs. It’s 2011 again!
Arizona has climbed its way back into the wild-card picture with 10 wins in its last 12, fueled by Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has extended its Central lead to four (a season high) with eight straight wins (and 12 in a row against teams that are “not the Dodgers”). The Diamondbacks remain, unfortunately, very much “not the Dodgers,” and I’m buying the Brewers’ consistent uptick since the middle of June.
But this thing’s definitely going into extras in the deciding game.
American League standings
AL division leaders
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
DIVISION LEAD
|
GB NO. 1
|
THIS WEEK
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
81 |
49 |
2 |
– |
vs. CWS |
at ARI |
|
|
74 |
56 |
1 |
7 |
vs. OAK |
at NYM |
|
|
68 |
63 |
6 |
13.5 |
vs. CLE |
at TEX |
AL wild-card race
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
GB DIV
|
GB WC
|
THIS WEEK
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
80 |
52 |
2 |
Up 6 |
at MIA |
at CLE |
|
|
73 |
57 |
1 |
– |
at NYM |
vs. MIN |
|
|
74 |
58 |
1 |
– |
at BOS |
vs. NYY |
|
|
71 |
60 |
10.5 |
2.5 |
vs. WSH |
at COL |
|
|
69 |
62 |
12.5 |
4.5 |
vs. HOU |
at KC |
|
|
63 |
68 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
at PHI |
at OAK |
|
|
62 |
68 |
19 |
11 |
at DET |
at HOU |
|
|
62 |
69 |
6 |
11.5 |
at MIN |
vs. TB |
National League standings
NL division leaders
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
DIVISION LEAD
|
GB NO. 1
|
THIS WEEK
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
84 |
45 |
12.5 |
– |
at COL |
at LAD |
|
|
80 |
49 |
12 |
4 |
vs. ARI |
vs. ATL |
|
|
73 |
57 |
4 |
11.5 |
at CHC |
vs. PHI |
NL wild-card race
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
GB DIV
|
GB WC
|
THIS WEEK
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
72 |
58 |
12.5 |
Up 3.5 |
vs. LAA |
at MIL |
|
|
69 |
61 |
4 |
Up 0.5 |
vs. MIL |
at CIN |
|
|
69 |
62 |
12 |
– |
at LAD |
vs. BAL |
|
|
67 |
63 |
13.5 |
1.5 |
vs. CIN |
at SD |
|
|
68 |
64 |
6 |
1.5 |
at SFG |
vs. CHC |
|
|
66 |
65 |
19 |
3 |
vs. TB |
at WSH |
|
|
61 |
70 |
20 |
8 |
at STL |
vs. SFG |
|
|
61 |
70 |
24 |
8 |
at TOR |
vs. MIA |
Most interesting race this week: American League West
Three teams within one game? Yes, please. The Rangers have been front-running all season ahead of the five-time defending division champs from Houston, and now it’s the Mariners who have tracked them down with a scalding August? The M’s schedule this week — home to the A’s, at the Mets — gives them a chance to stay hot, but I can’t help but peek ahead to the final 10 days of the season, when Seattle travels to Texas, then hosts the Astros and Rangers. At least the schedule’s still a little unbalanced, right?
Biggest mover: Seattle Mariners
They could have claimed this last week, if not for the Yankees’ dumpster fire. New York was polite enough to remove itself entirely from the playoff conversation, and Seattle earns this distinction over other streaking clubs in Milwaukee and Arizona. The Mariners’ last loss that didn’t come in their opponent’s final at-bat was 27 days ago. Their playoff odds the next morning, according to FanGraphs: 16.4 percent. Their playoff odds this morning: 85.1 percent.
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AL series to watch: Houston at Boston
The Red Sox remain in the wild-card hunt, fighting back to split a four-game series in Houston last week. A sweep here and, voila, the Sox would be within a game and a half of that last spot. An Astros series win, let alone a sweep, makes the math awfully hard for Boston. Cristian Javier faces Chris Sale in Monday night’s opener.
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NL series to watch: Milwaukee at Chicago
The Cubs are back to doing what they should be doing, taking three of four from the Pirates after two of three from the Tigers after two of three from the Royals. They’re two games clear of the Giants and Reds for a postseason berth.
The Brewers, as mentioned, have still created separation during that time. This is the penultimate series of the season between these two, with the other coming on the final weekend of the season. Corbin Burnes vs. Justin Steele Tuesday night is must-see.
Required reading
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
