At this point of the summer, everyone knows the top 100 overall like the back of their hand. So to me, it’s always been the later draft rounds that separate the fantasy wheat from the chaff. While I wouldn’t call my early-round strategy overly conservative, I do not take playing time risks or overt injury risks with my foundational pieces. Part of the reason is specifically so I can take the highest-upside swings on players where most get dropped anyway. I present my favorite post-ADP 120 players at each position:
Quarterback — Deshaun Watson, CLE (ADP 158)
The answer for this one won’t be found on the spreadsheet unless you’re willing to go back to 2020. At 29-years-old, it feels like a major inflection point for Watson, who already has a few failures under his belt for the Browns that have been chalked up to rust, injuries, and weather. This time Cleveland’s front office brought in former Buffalo OC Ken Dorsey to correct course for the beleaguered shot-caller. Stacked with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku, Watson is certainly surrounded by the weapons necessary to succeed. Will it actually happen though? I don’t know, but that part is already baked into a depressed price. We get a crack at the highest remaining ceiling without overpaying. Sign me up. A full offseason of preparation with retooled pass-catchers in a spread offense and the same +8% scramble rate from 2023 could mean a top 5 positional finish.
Running Back — Rico Dowdle, DAL (ADP 131)
Outside of a very small handful of transcendent runners, the RB position is more about the role and surrounding contextual environment than anything. In terms of “backups,” there isn’t a better available combination in the double-digit rounds than Dowdle. While technically second on the depth chart, camp reports continue the steady drumbeat for the former UDFA, who could usurp potentially dusted veteran Ezekiel Elliott for the feature role. Given expectations for the Cowboys’ high-scoring offense, getting the RB attached to those high-value touches could have league-winning potential.
Running Back — Zach Charbonnet, SEA (ADP 125)
Standalone value at the RB position predictably dries up fast. Once supply diminishes, Seattle’s Charbonnet represents one of the last chances at a Week 1 fantasy starter. Although I do believe Kenneth Walker’s grasp on the Seahawks’ base work remains unchallenged to open 2024, after that it’s anyone’s guess. Walker has a reputation for dancing around, manifesting on the spreadsheet in a suppressed success rate and an elevated rate of negative carries. So not only does Charbonnet project for a split workload with a claim for the lion’s share, if Seattle’s defense repeats as a bottom-tier unit, Charbonnet could dominate second half team touches all season.
Wide Receiver — Joshua Palmer, LAC (ADP 133)
Identifying target earners in the double-digit rounds becomes the name of the game in any league with 3 WRs or an extra FLEX spot. I’m not disagreeing with consensus — the Chargers stand to take a major step backward in terms of offensive production. That said, markets tend to overcorrect and this smells like a perfect example. Say what you will about Justin Herbert, he can make any throw on the field with that laser attached to his right shoulder. The Bolts also just literally created the most seismic target void I can remember in a single offseason. Departed free agents Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett accounted for an astounding 52.2% of all targets! Palmer’s the last man standing in a Chargers wide receiver room that didn’t do much in terms of reinforcement — and there’s almost no scenario he doesn’t go well north of 100 targets in a healthy campaign.
Wide Receiver — Rashid Shaheed, NO (ADP 144)
If I could choose one combination of skills for a fantasy wideout in the double-digit rounds, it’s the ability to earn targets and show explosivity. Enter Shaheed, the Saints’ third year UDFA, who checks both those boxes perfectly for the price. The departure of Michael Thomas does more than vacate 324 routes and 64 targets — it finally clears the runway for Shaheed to step into the WR2 role behind Chris Olave. And at 6-foot, 180 pounds, he’s not just a slot guy who can’t win outside. Across his 27 career games, Shaheed’s posted outstanding stats lined up out wide: 18.4% target/route, 2.35 yard/route, 41% explosive receiving rate, and 5 TD. I also happen to think Derek Carr is, at the very least, an average QB in a fast-paced dome setting who got a bad rap last year for poor play while fighting through shoulder injuries.
Wide Receiver — Greg Dortch, ARI (ADP 245)
Make sure to leave the endgame light on for Cardinals projected starting slot WR Greg Dortch, my favorite last-round pick in home leagues. Rondale Moore’s departure vacated more than half of Arizona’s slot routes and targets from 2023. Daily fantasy managers already know about “The Human Dortch.” Sure, his career game averages remain low based on spotty utilization, but he’s also shown consistent fantasy upside in his limited starts — in this case, a picture’s worth a thousand words (below). Plus, Kyler Murray, he of the career 33% slot-target rate, is finally coming off a healthy offseason for once, making the risk-reward-ratio on this one a no-brainer.
Tight End — Jonnu Smith, MIA (ADP 209)
If you waited on a tight end, you’ve already entrusted your fate to the fantasy streaming gods — so you may as well swing for the fences in the draft room. At 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, and with a 4.6 forty-time, Smith is an absolute physical freak. Case closed (see, not all analysis has to be complex and highfalutin). Kidding aside, there are only a small handful of guys at the position who could have turned that screen pass against the Vikings last November into a 60-yard TD. Now he’s in Miami, working under Mike McDaniel, the king of space creation in an offense with obvious room for a tertiary target behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Call me crazy, but there’s room in this range of outcomes for a top 5 TE finish.
Best Of The Rest — Deeper League And Best Ball Targets
Quarterback
Running Back
Wide Receiver
Tight End
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(Top photo of Rico Dowdle: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
